Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.807199 1.885750 1.968430 2.062412 2.166875 2.280145 2.413253
2025-11-16 1.713689 1.814580 1.924402 2.054054 2.204635 2.376268 2.590186
2025-11-23 1.646056 1.760656 1.888368 2.043335 2.229371 2.449925 2.738634
2025-11-30 1.604877 1.731323 1.875100 2.053820 2.274906 2.546919 2.920702
2025-12-07 1.539792 1.669651 1.819122 2.007714 2.245494 2.545227 2.970945
2025-12-14 1.500589 1.635831 1.793499 1.995614 2.255753 2.592626 3.089655
2025-12-21 1.462172 1.600835 1.764183 1.976343 2.254194 2.622472 3.184645
2025-12-28 1.447114 1.592900 1.766901 1.996713 2.304565 2.725493 3.399184
2026-01-04 1.438379 1.591897 1.777578 2.027096 2.369429 2.853650 3.671821
2026-01-11 1.414601 1.571229 1.762362 2.022239 2.384725 2.909966 3.833996
2026-01-18 1.396485 1.556826 1.754281 2.026049 2.411800 2.985529 4.041867
2026-01-25 1.362763 1.521762 1.718379 1.990509 2.379916 2.966270 4.070103
2026-02-01 1.340167 1.500845 1.700973 1.980683 2.386711 3.011793 4.237969
2026-02-08 1.320051 1.482398 1.686007 1.973297 2.396246 3.062043 4.425534
2026-02-15 1.300227 1.463701 1.669988 1.963542 2.401277 3.104717 4.606372
2026-02-22 1.289256 1.455955 1.668004 1.973158 2.436035 3.201161 4.934742
2026-03-01 1.258931 1.422430 1.630676 1.930899 2.387567 3.145966 4.881913
2026-03-08 1.241800 1.405685 1.615410 1.919792 2.387602 3.178242 5.060273
2026-03-15 1.222988 1.386325 1.596096 1.902088 2.376107 3.188207 5.183028
2026-03-22 1.218463 1.385505 1.601748 1.920801 2.424062 3.314038 5.675525
2026-03-29 1.217385 1.389108 1.613411 1.948678 2.488696 3.480629 6.391107
2026-04-05 1.205085 1.377512 1.603767 1.944224 2.498647 3.538067 6.771475
2026-04-12 1.196015 1.370004 1.599547 1.947718 2.522242 3.626789 7.337105